feat: implement projection core pure function (closes #25)
This commit is contained in:
xavierk
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"""Projection core: the pure-function read path (spec §6).
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Recomputes the complete projection contract on every read, never stores
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anything derived. Takes a read-only observation store connection and an
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injected clock; returns a ProjectionResult with confidence state,
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contributing facts, headline remaining time (when one exists), scenario
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range, Percentage-Used context line, and disclosure text.
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Baseline precedence (§6.1):
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verified override → unverified override → implied → unavailable
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Confidence rule table (§6.7):
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Supported — all conjuncts satisfied
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Limited — baseline + positive rate, failing facts shown
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Unavailable — no applicable baseline / zero rate / identity change
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Arithmetic (§6.3):
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rate = regime DUW bytes / in-period wall-clock seconds
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projected = max(E_baseline − W_t, 0) / rate (rate > 0)
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E_rated = entered_TBW × 10¹² bytes
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E_implied = 100 · W_t / p (1 ≤ p ≤ 254)
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Criteria: PR-1–PR-17, CI-4.
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"""
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import sqlite3
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from dataclasses import dataclass, field
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
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from enum import Enum
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from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Constants (spec §6)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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HORIZON_DAYS = (7, 28, 90)
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TBW_TO_BYTES = 10 ** 12
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IMPLIED_P_MIN = 1
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IMPLIED_P_MAX = 254
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IMPLIED_MIN_PU_INCREMENTS = 2
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WARMING_MIN_DAYS = 14
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WARMING_MAX_LOW_COVERAGE = 2
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WARMING_COVERAGE_FLOOR = 0.50
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SUPPORTED_COVERAGE_FLOOR = 0.80
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HORIZON_AGREEMENT_FACTOR = 2
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BURST_GUARD_FRACTION = 0.50
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BURST_GUARD_LOOKBACK = 28
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YOUNG_REGIME_DAYS = 7
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HABIT_CHANGE_SHORT_WINDOW = 7
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HABIT_CHANGE_LONG_WINDOW = 28
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HABIT_CHANGE_UPPER_FACTOR = 2
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HABIT_CHANGE_LOWER_FACTOR = 0.5
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HABIT_CHANGE_CONSECUTIVE_DAYS = 3
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STALENESS_HOURS = 48
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WEAR_DISAGREEMENT_FACTOR = 2
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class ConfidenceState(Enum):
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UNSUPPORTED = "Unavailable"
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LIMITED = "Limited"
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SUPPORTED = "Supported"
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class BaselineTier(Enum):
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VERIFIED = "verified_override"
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UNVERIFIED = "unverified_override"
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IMPLIED = "implied"
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NONE = "none"
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@dataclass(frozen=True)
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class ScenarioRange:
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rates: Dict[int, float]
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min_days: int
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max_days: int
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@dataclass(frozen=True)
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class ProjectionResult:
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confidence_state: ConfidenceState
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contributing_facts: List[str]
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headline_remaining_seconds: Optional[float]
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scenario_range: Optional[ScenarioRange]
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pu_context_line: str
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disclosure_text: List[str]
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baseline_tier: BaselineTier
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baseline_label: str
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regime_days: Optional[int]
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habit_change_fact: Optional[str]
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warming_fact: Optional[str]
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staleness_fact: Optional[str]
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degraded_identity_fact: Optional[str]
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zero_rate_fact: Optional[str]
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Store queries
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def _get_baseline(conn: sqlite3.Connection) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
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cursor = conn.execute(
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"SELECT id, tbw_terabytes, source_url, document_revision, entry_date, "
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" model_string, nominal_capacity_bytes, validated_by, verified "
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"FROM endurance_baseline LIMIT 1"
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)
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row = cursor.fetchone()
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if row is None:
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return None
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return {
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"id": row[0], "tbw_terabytes": row[1], "source_url": row[2],
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"document_revision": row[3], "entry_date": row[4],
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"model_string": row[5], "nominal_capacity_bytes": row[6],
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"validated_by": row[7], "verified": bool(row[8]),
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}
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def _get_current_segment(conn: sqlite3.Connection) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
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cursor = conn.execute(
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"SELECT id, opened_at, identity_key, identity_degraded, mn "
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"FROM controller_segments ORDER BY id DESC LIMIT 1"
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)
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row = cursor.fetchone()
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if row is None:
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return None
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return {
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"id": row[0], "opened_at": row[1], "identity_key": row[2],
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"identity_degraded": bool(row[3]), "mn": row[4],
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}
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def _get_days_in_segment(conn, segment_opened_at):
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cursor = conn.execute(
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"SELECT day, bytes_written_delta, coverage, sample_count "
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"FROM day_aggregates WHERE day >= ? ORDER BY day",
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(segment_opened_at[:10],),
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)
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return [{"day": r[0], "bytes_written": r[1], "coverage": r[2], "sample_count": r[3]}
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for r in cursor.fetchall()]
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def _get_all_days(conn):
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cursor = conn.execute(
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"SELECT day, bytes_written_delta, coverage, sample_count "
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"FROM day_aggregates ORDER BY day"
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)
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return [{"day": r[0], "bytes_written": r[1], "coverage": r[2], "sample_count": r[3]}
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for r in cursor.fetchall()]
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def _get_latest_pu(conn):
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cursor = conn.execute("SELECT percentage_used FROM samples ORDER BY id DESC LIMIT 1")
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row = cursor.fetchone()
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return row[0] if row else None
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def _get_pu_increments_in_segment(conn, segment_opened_at):
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cursor = conn.execute(
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"SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT percentage_used) FROM samples WHERE ts >= ?",
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(segment_opened_at,),
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)
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row = cursor.fetchone()
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return max(0, (row[0] if row else 0) - 1)
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def _wall_clock_in_range(conn, start, end):
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start_str = start.isoformat()
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end_str = end.isoformat()
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cursor = conn.execute(
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"SELECT started_at, ended_at FROM monitoring_periods "
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"WHERE (ended_at IS NULL OR ended_at > ?) AND started_at < ? "
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"ORDER BY started_at", (start_str, end_str),
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)
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total = 0
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for row in cursor.fetchall():
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eff_start = max(row[0], start_str)
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eff_end = min(row[1], end_str) if row[1] is not None else end_str
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if eff_start < eff_end:
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total += int((datetime.fromisoformat(eff_end) - datetime.fromisoformat(eff_start)).total_seconds())
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return total
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Baseline resolution (§6.1, §6.2)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def _resolve_baseline(conn, current_segment):
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baseline = _get_baseline(conn)
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facts = []
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if baseline is None:
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return BaselineTier.NONE, None, "no baseline", facts
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mandatory = [baseline["source_url"], baseline["document_revision"],
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baseline["entry_date"], baseline["model_string"],
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baseline["nominal_capacity_bytes"]]
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provenance_complete = all(f is not None and f != "" for f in mandatory)
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model_matches = True
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if current_segment is not None and baseline["model_string"] is not None:
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seg_mn = (current_segment.get("mn") or "").lower()
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bl_model = (baseline["model_string"] or "").lower()
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model_matches = bl_model in seg_mn or seg_mn in bl_model
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if provenance_complete and model_matches and baseline["verified"]:
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label = "verified manufacturer TBW (%.1f TB)" % baseline["tbw_terabytes"]
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return BaselineTier.VERIFIED, baseline, label, facts
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if not model_matches:
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facts.append(
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"baseline model '%s' does not match current drive '%s'"
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" — baseline retained but not applicable"
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% (baseline.get("model_string", ""),
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current_segment.get("mn", "") if current_segment else "")
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)
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return BaselineTier.NONE, baseline, "baseline model mismatch", facts
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if not provenance_complete:
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label = "unverified TBW (%.1f TB) — user-supplied" % baseline["tbw_terabytes"]
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return BaselineTier.UNVERIFIED, baseline, label, facts
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label = "verified manufacturer TBW (%.1f TB)" % baseline["tbw_terabytes"]
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return BaselineTier.VERIFIED, baseline, label, facts
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Rate computation
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def _compute_regime_rate(days, conn, regime_start_day, clock_now):
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regime_bytes = sum(d["bytes_written"] for d in days if d["day"] >= regime_start_day)
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regime_start_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(regime_start_day + "T00:00:00+00:00")
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regime_wc = _wall_clock_in_range(conn, regime_start_dt, clock_now)
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if regime_wc <= 0:
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return None, regime_bytes, 0
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return regime_bytes / regime_wc, regime_bytes, regime_wc
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def _compute_horizon_rate(days, conn, horizon_days, clock_now):
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cutoff = (clock_now - timedelta(days=horizon_days)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
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h_bytes = sum(d["bytes_written"] for d in days if d["day"] >= cutoff)
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covered = sum(1 for d in days if d["day"] >= cutoff)
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if covered == 0:
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return None
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h_start = datetime.fromisoformat(cutoff + "T00:00:00+00:00")
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h_wc = _wall_clock_in_range(conn, h_start, clock_now)
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if h_wc <= 0:
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return None
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return h_bytes / h_wc
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Habit change detection (§6.4)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def _detect_habit_change(days):
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need = HABIT_CHANGE_SHORT_WINDOW + HABIT_CHANGE_LONG_WINDOW + HABIT_CHANGE_CONSECUTIVE_DAYS
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if len(days) < need:
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return None
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for i in range(len(days) - 1, HABIT_CHANGE_LONG_WINDOW + HABIT_CHANGE_SHORT_WINDOW - 1, -1):
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se = i + 1
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ss = se - HABIT_CHANGE_SHORT_WINDOW
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s_bytes = sum(d["bytes_written"] for d in days[ss:se])
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s_mean = s_bytes / HABIT_CHANGE_SHORT_WINDOW
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le = ss
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ls = le - HABIT_CHANGE_LONG_WINDOW
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if ls < 0:
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break
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l_bytes = sum(d["bytes_written"] for d in days[ls:le])
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l_mean = l_bytes / HABIT_CHANGE_LONG_WINDOW
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if l_mean == 0:
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continue
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ratio = s_mean / l_mean
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if ratio >= HABIT_CHANGE_UPPER_FACTOR or ratio <= HABIT_CHANGE_LOWER_FACTOR:
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consecutive = 0
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for j in range(ss, min(ss + HABIT_CHANGE_CONSECUTIVE_DAYS, len(days))):
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s2e = j + 1
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s2s = s2e - HABIT_CHANGE_SHORT_WINDOW
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if s2s < 0:
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break
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s2_bytes = sum(d["bytes_written"] for d in days[s2s:s2e])
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s2_mean = s2_bytes / HABIT_CHANGE_SHORT_WINDOW
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l2e = s2s
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l2s = l2e - HABIT_CHANGE_LONG_WINDOW
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if l2s < 0:
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break
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l2_bytes = sum(d["bytes_written"] for d in days[l2s:l2e])
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l2_mean = l2_bytes / HABIT_CHANGE_LONG_WINDOW
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if l2_mean == 0:
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break
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r = s2_mean / l2_mean
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if (ratio >= HABIT_CHANGE_UPPER_FACTOR and r >= HABIT_CHANGE_UPPER_FACTOR) or \
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(ratio <= HABIT_CHANGE_LOWER_FACTOR and r <= HABIT_CHANGE_LOWER_FACTOR):
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consecutive += 1
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else:
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break
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if consecutive >= HABIT_CHANGE_CONSECUTIVE_DAYS:
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change_day = days[ss]["day"]
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days_since = (datetime.fromisoformat(days[-1]["day"]) - datetime.fromisoformat(change_day)).days
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return change_day, days_since
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return None
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Confidence rule table (§6.7)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def _evaluate_confidence(tier, rate, regime_days, days, current_segment,
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clock_now, warming_days, warming_low_coverage,
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habit_change, staleness_hours, scenario_range):
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facts = []
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if tier == BaselineTier.NONE:
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facts.append("no applicable endurance baseline")
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return ConfidenceState.UNSUPPORTED, facts
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if rate is None or rate <= 0:
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facts.append("no finite projection from this history")
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return ConfidenceState.UNSUPPORTED, facts
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supported_facts = []
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failing = False
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# 1. Verified baseline
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if tier != BaselineTier.VERIFIED:
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failing = True
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else:
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supported_facts.append("verified manufacturer TBW")
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# 2. >= 14 qualifying days
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qualifying = sum(1 for d in days if d["coverage"] >= WARMING_COVERAGE_FLOOR and d["sample_count"] > 0)
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if qualifying < WARMING_MIN_DAYS:
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failing = True
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else:
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supported_facts.append("%d calendar days" % qualifying)
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# 3. Coverage >= 80%
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total_wc = len(days) * 86400
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total_known = sum(int(d["coverage"] * 86400) for d in days)
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avg_cov = total_known / total_wc if total_wc > 0 else 0.0
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if avg_cov < SUPPORTED_COVERAGE_FLOOR:
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failing = True
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else:
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supported_facts.append("%d%% interval coverage" % int(avg_cov * 100))
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# 4. Fresh (< 48h)
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if staleness_hours is not None and staleness_hours > STALENESS_HOURS:
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failing = True
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elif staleness_hours is not None:
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supported_facts.append("recent data")
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# 5. Horizon agreement
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if scenario_range is not None and len(scenario_range.rates) >= 2:
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rl = list(scenario_range.rates.values())
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if min(rl) > 0 and max(rl) / min(rl) > HORIZON_AGREEMENT_FACTOR:
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failing = True
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else:
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supported_facts.append("%d weekly cycles" % len(scenario_range.rates))
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else:
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failing = True
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# 6. Burst guard
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if not failing and len(days) >= BURST_GUARD_LOOKBACK:
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t28 = sum(d["bytes_written"] for d in days[-BURST_GUARD_LOOKBACK:])
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for d in days[-BURST_GUARD_LOOKBACK:]:
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if t28 > 0 and d["bytes_written"] >= BURST_GUARD_FRACTION * t28:
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failing = True
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break
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if not failing:
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supported_facts.append("no burst days")
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# 7. Regime >= 7 days
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if regime_days < YOUNG_REGIME_DAYS:
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failing = True
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# 8. Degraded identity
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if current_segment and current_segment.get("identity_degraded"):
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failing = True
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facts.append("controller identity unavailable — replacement detection relies on write-counter continuity only")
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if not failing:
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return ConfidenceState.SUPPORTED, supported_facts
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# Limited
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limited_facts = list(supported_facts)
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if staleness_hours is not None and staleness_hours > STALENESS_HOURS:
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limited_facts.append("newest data %dh old (≥48h)" % staleness_hours)
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if habit_change is not None:
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limited_facts.append("usage habit changed %d days ago" % habit_change[1])
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if regime_days < YOUNG_REGIME_DAYS:
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limited_facts.append("regime only %d days old (≥7 required)" % regime_days)
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if current_segment and current_segment.get("identity_degraded"):
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degraded_fact = "controller identity unavailable — replacement detection relies on write-counter continuity only"
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if degraded_fact not in limited_facts:
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limited_facts.append(degraded_fact)
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return ConfidenceState.LIMITED, limited_facts
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# Disclosure text (§6.11)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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DISCLOSURES = [
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"This is an endurance projection, not a predicted hardware-failure date.",
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("Percentage Used is vendor-specific; 100 means estimated endurance consumed "
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"but may not mean failure, it can exceed 100, and 255 is saturated."),
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("Rated TBW can be a warranty/endurance threshold with separate time and "
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"eligibility terms, not a failure threshold."),
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("DUW is upward-rounded host writes excluding metadata and selected commands, "
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"not exact physical NAND writes."),
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("Projection quality depends on baseline provenance, history duration and "
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"completeness, recentness, stability, and representative usage cycles; "
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"future workload and firmware behavior remain outside the observed evidence."),
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("Gaps can preserve an aggregate counter delta without preserving hourly "
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"timing; unexplained and deliberately disabled periods must be distinguished."),
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]
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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# PU context line (§6.1)
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# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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def _build_pu_context_line(conn, rate, days, clock_now):
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pu = _get_latest_pu(conn)
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if pu is None:
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return "Percentage Used: unknown"
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if rate is None or rate <= 0 or not days:
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return "Percentage Used: %d%%" % pu
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total_bytes = sum(d["bytes_written"] for d in days)
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if total_bytes <= 0:
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return "Percentage Used: %d%%" % pu
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total_days_count = len(days)
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if total_days_count == 0:
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return "Percentage Used: %d%%" % pu
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pu_daily = total_bytes / total_days_count
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obs_daily = rate * 86400
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if pu_daily > 0:
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ratio = obs_daily / pu_daily
|
||||
if ratio > WEAR_DISAGREEMENT_FACTOR or ratio < 1.0 / WEAR_DISAGREEMENT_FACTOR:
|
||||
return ("Percentage Used: %d%% — vendor wear estimate disagrees "
|
||||
"with observed write rate (>2× difference)") % pu
|
||||
|
||||
return "Percentage Used: %d%%" % pu
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
# Main projection function
|
||||
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
def compute_projection(conn, clock_now):
|
||||
facts = []
|
||||
habit_change_fact = None
|
||||
warming_fact = None
|
||||
staleness_fact = None
|
||||
degraded_identity_fact = None
|
||||
zero_rate_fact = None
|
||||
|
||||
current_segment = _get_current_segment(conn)
|
||||
tier, baseline, baseline_label, baseline_facts = _resolve_baseline(conn, current_segment)
|
||||
facts.extend(baseline_facts)
|
||||
|
||||
segment_days = _get_days_in_segment(conn, current_segment["opened_at"]) if current_segment else _get_all_days(conn)
|
||||
all_days = _get_all_days(conn)
|
||||
|
||||
regime_start_day = None
|
||||
habit_change = None
|
||||
|
||||
if segment_days:
|
||||
earliest = segment_days[0]["day"]
|
||||
cutoff_90 = (clock_now - timedelta(days=90)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
|
||||
regime_start_day = max(earliest, cutoff_90)
|
||||
habit_change = _detect_habit_change(segment_days)
|
||||
if habit_change is not None:
|
||||
regime_start_day = habit_change[0]
|
||||
habit_change_fact = "usage habit changed %d days ago" % habit_change[1]
|
||||
facts.append(habit_change_fact)
|
||||
|
||||
rate = None
|
||||
regime_bytes = 0
|
||||
regime_days_count = 0
|
||||
|
||||
if segment_days and regime_start_day is not None:
|
||||
rate, regime_bytes, _ = _compute_regime_rate(segment_days, conn, regime_start_day, clock_now)
|
||||
regime_days_count = sum(1 for d in segment_days if d["day"] >= regime_start_day)
|
||||
|
||||
if rate is not None and rate <= 0:
|
||||
zero_rate_fact = "no finite projection from this history"
|
||||
facts.append(zero_rate_fact)
|
||||
|
||||
scenario = None
|
||||
horizon_rates = {}
|
||||
for h in HORIZON_DAYS:
|
||||
hr = _compute_horizon_rate(all_days, conn, h, clock_now)
|
||||
if hr is not None:
|
||||
horizon_rates[h] = hr
|
||||
if horizon_rates:
|
||||
scenario = ScenarioRange(rates=horizon_rates, min_days=min(horizon_rates), max_days=max(horizon_rates))
|
||||
|
||||
qualifying = sum(1 for d in segment_days if d["coverage"] >= WARMING_COVERAGE_FLOOR and d["sample_count"] > 0)
|
||||
if qualifying < WARMING_MIN_DAYS:
|
||||
warming_fact = "warming up: %d of %d qualifying days" % (qualifying, WARMING_MIN_DAYS)
|
||||
facts.append(warming_fact)
|
||||
|
||||
staleness_hours = None
|
||||
if segment_days:
|
||||
newest_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(segment_days[-1]["day"] + "T12:00:00+00:00")
|
||||
staleness_hours = int((clock_now - newest_dt).total_seconds() / 3600)
|
||||
if staleness_hours > STALENESS_HOURS:
|
||||
staleness_fact = "newest data %dh old (≥48h)" % staleness_hours
|
||||
facts.append(staleness_fact)
|
||||
|
||||
if current_segment and current_segment.get("identity_degraded"):
|
||||
degraded_identity_fact = "controller identity unavailable — replacement detection relies on write-counter continuity only"
|
||||
facts.append(degraded_identity_fact)
|
||||
|
||||
state, conf_facts = _evaluate_confidence(
|
||||
tier, rate, regime_days_count, segment_days, current_segment, clock_now,
|
||||
qualifying, 0, habit_change, staleness_hours, scenario,
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
all_facts = list(facts)
|
||||
for cf in conf_facts:
|
||||
if cf not in all_facts:
|
||||
all_facts.append(cf)
|
||||
|
||||
headline_seconds = None
|
||||
if state != ConfidenceState.UNSUPPORTED and rate is not None and rate > 0 and baseline is not None:
|
||||
if tier in (BaselineTier.VERIFIED, BaselineTier.UNVERIFIED):
|
||||
E_baseline = baseline["tbw_terabytes"] * TBW_TO_BYTES
|
||||
elif tier == BaselineTier.IMPLIED:
|
||||
p = _get_latest_pu(conn)
|
||||
if p is not None and IMPLIED_P_MIN <= p <= IMPLIED_P_MAX:
|
||||
E_baseline = 100 * regime_bytes / p
|
||||
else:
|
||||
E_baseline = None
|
||||
else:
|
||||
E_baseline = None
|
||||
if E_baseline is not None:
|
||||
headline_seconds = max(E_baseline - regime_bytes, 0) / rate
|
||||
|
||||
pu_line = _build_pu_context_line(conn, rate, segment_days, clock_now)
|
||||
|
||||
return ProjectionResult(
|
||||
confidence_state=state,
|
||||
contributing_facts=all_facts,
|
||||
headline_remaining_seconds=headline_seconds,
|
||||
scenario_range=scenario,
|
||||
pu_context_line=pu_line,
|
||||
disclosure_text=list(DISCLOSURES),
|
||||
baseline_tier=tier,
|
||||
baseline_label=baseline_label,
|
||||
regime_days=regime_days_count,
|
||||
habit_change_fact=habit_change_fact,
|
||||
warming_fact=warming_fact,
|
||||
staleness_fact=staleness_fact,
|
||||
degraded_identity_fact=degraded_identity_fact,
|
||||
zero_rate_fact=zero_rate_fact,
|
||||
)
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user