fix(projection): align projection with ADR 0002
Use lifetime written bytes from the current segment's newest published sample in the headline formula, select the Percentage-Used-implied baseline after two increments in the segment (otherwise show the too-coarse fact), and judge horizon agreement across existing horizons. Make the vacuous projection tests assert unconditionally and add coverage for implied-baseline gating and single-horizon agreement.
This commit is contained in:
xavierk
+110
-22
@@ -74,12 +74,13 @@ def _insert_day(conn, day, bw=1024*1024*100, coverage=0.95, samples=24):
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conn.commit()
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def _insert_sample(conn, ts, pu=5):
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def _insert_sample(conn, ts, pu=5, bytes_written=512000000000, segment_id=1):
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conn.execute(
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"INSERT INTO samples (ts, device, data_units_written, data_units_read, "
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"percentage_used, bytes_written, bytes_read, power_on_hours) "
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"VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)",
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(ts, "/dev/nvme0n1", 1000000, 500000, pu, 512000000000, 256000000000, 8765),
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"percentage_used, bytes_written, bytes_read, power_on_hours, segment_id) "
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"VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)",
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(ts, "/dev/nvme0n1", bytes_written // 512000, 500000, pu, bytes_written,
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256000000000, 8765, segment_id),
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)
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conn.commit()
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@@ -223,6 +224,88 @@ class TestImpliedBaseline:
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result = compute_projection(store, _clock())
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assert result.baseline_tier == BaselineTier.VERIFIED
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def _setup_implied(self, store, pus):
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"""No override baseline; one sample per PU value inside the segment."""
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_insert_segment(store)
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_open_period(store)
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for i in range(20):
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d = (datetime(2026, 9, 10) + timedelta(days=i)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
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_insert_day(store, d, bw=1024*1024*100)
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for i, pu in enumerate(pus):
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_insert_sample(store, "2026-09-%02dT10:00:00+00:00" % (20 + i), pu=pu)
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_insert_complete_local_days(store, "2026-09-29", 1)
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@pytest.mark.parametrize("pus", [[5], [5, 5, 5], [5, 6]])
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def test_implied_unavailable_before_two_increments(self, store, pus):
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self._setup_implied(store, pus)
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result = compute_projection(store, _clock())
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assert result.confidence_state == ConfidenceState.UNSUPPORTED
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assert result.baseline_tier == BaselineTier.NONE
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assert result.headline_remaining_seconds is None
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assert "vendor wear estimate too coarse to imply endurance" in result.contributing_facts
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def test_implied_unavailable_ignores_increments_in_other_segments(self, store):
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_insert_segment(store, opened_at="2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00")
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_insert_segment(store, opened_at="2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00", identity_key="nqn.new")
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_open_period(store)
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for i in range(20):
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d = (datetime(2026, 9, 10) + timedelta(days=i)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
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_insert_day(store, d, bw=1024*1024*100)
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# Two increments in the old segment, none in the current one
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_insert_sample(store, "2026-09-02T10:00:00+00:00", pu=3, segment_id=1)
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_insert_sample(store, "2026-09-03T10:00:00+00:00", pu=4, segment_id=1)
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_insert_sample(store, "2026-09-20T10:00:00+00:00", pu=5, segment_id=2)
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_insert_complete_local_days(store, "2026-09-29", 1)
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result = compute_projection(store, _clock())
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assert result.baseline_tier == BaselineTier.NONE
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assert "vendor wear estimate too coarse to imply endurance" in result.contributing_facts
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def test_implied_unavailable_when_pu_out_of_range(self, store):
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self._setup_implied(store, [0, 1, 2])
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store.execute("UPDATE samples SET percentage_used = 255 WHERE id = 3")
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store.commit()
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result = compute_projection(store, _clock())
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assert result.baseline_tier == BaselineTier.NONE
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assert "vendor wear estimate too coarse to imply endurance" in result.contributing_facts
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def test_implied_eligible_after_two_increments(self, store):
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self._setup_implied(store, [5, 6, 7])
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W_t = 512000000000
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result = compute_projection(store, _clock())
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assert result.baseline_tier == BaselineTier.IMPLIED
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# Implied baseline is never Supported-eligible
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assert result.confidence_state == ConfidenceState.LIMITED
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assert "vendor wear estimate too coarse to imply endurance" not in result.contributing_facts
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E_implied = 100 * W_t / 7
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regime_bytes = 20 * 1024 * 1024 * 100
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regime_start = datetime(2026, 9, 10, 0, 0, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
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rate = regime_bytes / int((_clock() - regime_start).total_seconds())
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assert abs(result.headline_remaining_seconds - max(E_implied - W_t, 0) / rate) < 1.0
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def test_override_wins_over_implied(self, store):
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_insert_baseline(store, tbw_tb=1.0, verified=True)
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self._setup_implied(store, [5, 6, 7])
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result = compute_projection(store, _clock())
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assert result.baseline_tier == BaselineTier.VERIFIED
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class TestHorizonAgreement:
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def test_single_horizon_passes_agreement(self, store):
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"""ADR 0002 §8: agreement is judged across existing horizons; one passes."""
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_insert_baseline(store, tbw_tb=1.0, verified=True)
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_insert_segment(store)
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_open_period(store)
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# 14 days covers only the 7-day horizon
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for i in range(14):
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d = (datetime(2026, 9, 17) + timedelta(days=i)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
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_insert_day(store, d, bw=1024*1024*100)
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_insert_sample(store, "2026-09-30T10:00:00+00:00", pu=5)
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_insert_complete_local_days(store, "2026-09-29", 1)
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result = compute_projection(store, _clock())
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assert list(result.scenario_range.rates) == [7]
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assert not any("regime only" in f for f in result.contributing_facts)
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assert result.confidence_state == ConfidenceState.SUPPORTED
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class TestZeroRate:
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def test_zero_rate_fixed_phrase(self, store):
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@@ -339,17 +422,19 @@ class TestArithmetic:
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for i in range(30):
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d = (datetime(2026, 9, 1) + timedelta(days=i)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
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_insert_day(store, d, bw=1024*1024*100)
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_insert_sample(store, "2026-09-30T10:00:00+00:00", pu=5)
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W_t = 512000000000 # lifetime written bytes of the newest sample
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_insert_sample(store, "2026-09-30T10:00:00+00:00", pu=5, bytes_written=W_t)
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_insert_complete_local_days(store, "2026-09-29", 1)
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result = compute_projection(store, _clock())
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if result.headline_remaining_seconds is not None:
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E_rated = 2.0 * TBW_TO_BYTES
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regime_bytes = 30 * 1024 * 1024 * 100
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period_start = datetime(2026, 9, 1, 0, 0, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
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period_end = _clock()
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actual_wc = int((period_end - period_start).total_seconds())
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rate = regime_bytes / actual_wc
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expected = max(E_rated - regime_bytes, 0) / rate
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assert abs(result.headline_remaining_seconds - expected) < 1.0
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assert result.headline_remaining_seconds is not None
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E_rated = 2.0 * TBW_TO_BYTES
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regime_bytes = 30 * 1024 * 1024 * 100
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period_start = datetime(2026, 9, 1, 0, 0, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
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actual_wc = int((_clock() - period_start).total_seconds())
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rate = regime_bytes / actual_wc
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# W_t is lifetime written bytes, not the regime delta
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expected = max(E_rated - W_t, 0) / rate
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assert abs(result.headline_remaining_seconds - expected) < 1.0
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def test_wearing_rate_proportional(self, store):
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_insert_baseline(store, tbw_tb=1.0, verified=True)
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@@ -359,6 +444,7 @@ class TestArithmetic:
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d = (datetime(2026, 9, 1) + timedelta(days=i)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
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_insert_day(store, d, bw=1024*1024*100)
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_insert_sample(store, "2026-09-30T10:00:00+00:00", pu=5)
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_insert_complete_local_days(store, "2026-09-29", 1)
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r_slow = compute_projection(store, _clock())
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store.execute("DELETE FROM day_aggregates")
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@@ -368,9 +454,9 @@ class TestArithmetic:
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_insert_day(store, d, bw=2*1024*1024*100)
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r_fast = compute_projection(store, _clock())
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if r_slow.headline_remaining_seconds is not None and r_fast.headline_remaining_seconds is not None:
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assert r_fast.headline_remaining_seconds < r_slow.headline_remaining_seconds
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assert r_slow.headline_remaining_seconds is not None
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assert r_fast.headline_remaining_seconds is not None
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assert r_fast.headline_remaining_seconds < r_slow.headline_remaining_seconds
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# ===========================================================================
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@@ -394,17 +480,19 @@ class TestSustainedRegimeRate:
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for i in range(30):
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d = (datetime(2026, 9, 1) + timedelta(days=i)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
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_insert_day(store, d, bw=bw)
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_insert_sample(store, "2026-09-30T10:00:00+00:00", pu=5)
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W_t = 512000000000
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_insert_sample(store, "2026-09-30T10:00:00+00:00", pu=5, bytes_written=W_t)
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_insert_complete_local_days(store, "2026-09-29", 1)
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result = compute_projection(store, _clock())
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# Regime = full 30 days; rate = 30*bw / wall-clock
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regime_bytes = 30 * bw
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period_start = datetime(2026, 9, 1, 0, 0, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
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wc = int((_clock() - period_start).total_seconds())
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expected_rate = regime_bytes / wc
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if result.headline_remaining_seconds is not None:
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E = 10.0 * TBW_TO_BYTES
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expected_seconds = max(E - regime_bytes, 0) / expected_rate
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assert abs(result.headline_remaining_seconds - expected_seconds) < 1.0
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assert result.headline_remaining_seconds is not None
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E = 10.0 * TBW_TO_BYTES
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expected_seconds = max(E - W_t, 0) / expected_rate
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assert abs(result.headline_remaining_seconds - expected_seconds) < 1.0
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def test_regime_capped_at_90_days(self, store):
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"""Default regime is full history capped at 90 days."""
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