feat(projection): show staged projection with evidence ladder

Report a projection stage, an evidence ladder and the sustained-regime
write rate from compute_projection, per ADR 0012. A provisional lifespan
appears after 3 observed hours and carries the hours observed and a
short-horizon spread; the complete-local-day condition becomes a fact
instead of a gate, and the write rate replaces the lifespan when no
baseline applies. The TUI and CLI render the stage, ladder count and
full ladder, and drop their own two-sample pre-gates.

src/fenris/status.py

@@ -23,7 +23,10 @@ from typing import Any, Dict, Iterator, List, Optional, Tuple, TYPE_CHECKING
 if TYPE_CHECKING:
     from .status_composition import StatusComposition
 
-from .projection import compute_projection, ConfidenceState, DISCLOSURES
+from .projection import (
+    compute_projection, ConfidenceState, DISCLOSURES, ProjectionStage, ladder_count_text,
+    ladder_lines, write_rate_gb_day,
+)
 from .store import SCHEMA_VERSION
 from .init_system import (
     query_service_state as _init_query_service_state,
@@ -255,8 +258,7 @@ def check_retired_flag(flag: str) -> Optional[str]:
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 def _format_projection(proj, freshness: str, drive_facts: List[str],
-                       config_error: Optional[str],
-                       sample_count: int = 0, day_count: int = 0) -> str:
+                       config_error: Optional[str]) -> str:
     """Format projection details; monitoring status has its own renderer."""
     lines = []
 
@@ -272,15 +274,6 @@ def _format_projection(proj, freshness: str, drive_facts: List[str],
         lines.append("Enable monitoring: fenris monitor resume")
         return "\n".join(lines)
 
-    # --- Single sample: awaiting another sample (issue #73 AC3) ---
-    # Only show awaiting state when there are no day aggregates (e.g., legacy import
-    # or hand-crafted stores can have 1 sample but sufficient day data for projection)
-    if sample_count <= 1 and day_count == 0:
-        lines.append("awaiting another sample")
-        lines.append("")
-        lines.append("Collecting usage data — the first projection requires at least two samples.")
-        return "\n".join(lines)
-
     if proj is None:
         lines.append("no projection available")
         return "\n".join(lines)
@@ -290,6 +283,9 @@ def _format_projection(proj, freshness: str, drive_facts: List[str],
     lines.append(headline)
     lines.append("")
 
+    # --- Stage and ladder count (ADR 0012) ---
+    lines.append("Projection stage: %s · %s" % (proj.stage_label, ladder_count_text(proj)))
+
     # --- Confidence state + contributing facts (§6.7, §6.11) ---
     state_label = proj.confidence_state.value
     facts_list = list(proj.contributing_facts) if proj.contributing_facts else []
@@ -305,6 +301,11 @@ def _format_projection(proj, freshness: str, drive_facts: List[str],
         lines.append("%s evidence" % state_label)
     lines.append("")
 
+    # --- Full evidence ladder in the outlook (ADR 0012 §5) ---
+    lines.append("Evidence ladder")
+    lines.extend("  " + line for line in ladder_lines(proj))
+    lines.append("")
+
     # --- Scenario range (§6.5) with horizon reasons ---
     if proj.scenario_range:
         parts = []
@@ -333,8 +334,13 @@ def _format_projection(proj, freshness: str, drive_facts: List[str],
 def _format_headline(proj) -> str:
     """Format the lifespan headline or its no-projection wording (§6.11)."""
     if proj.headline_remaining_seconds is None:
+        if proj.stage == ProjectionStage.NO_OBSERVATIONS:
+            return "no projection yet — collecting observations"
         if proj.zero_rate_fact:
             return "no finite projection from this history"
+        rate = write_rate_gb_day(proj)
+        if rate is not None:
+            return "write rate: %.2f GB/day · no lifespan without an endurance baseline" % rate
         if proj.warming_fact:
             return proj.warming_fact
         return "no projection available"
@@ -507,10 +513,7 @@ def get_status(store_path: Optional[Path] = None, clock_now: Optional[datetime]
                     proj = compute_projection(conn, clock_now)
                 except (sqlite3.Error, ValueError, TypeError):
                     pass
-            parts.append(_format_projection(
-                proj, comp.freshness, drive_facts, config_error,
-                comp.sample_count, comp.day_count,
-            ))
+            parts.append(_format_projection(proj, comp.freshness, drive_facts, config_error))
         if query_journal and (
             comp.store_fault or comp.last_collect_ok is False
             or comp.freshness in ("missed", "stale")