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docs: record staged projection decisions (#105)

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Add ADR 0012 amending ADR 0002 and ADR 0003: projection stages,
provisional lifespan after 3 observed hours, short scenario horizons,
evidence ladder, and TUI unverified TBW entry. Add Projection stage,
Provisional projection, Evidence ladder and Activity readout to the
glossary.
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xavierk
2026-10-03 08:13:12 +05:30
parent 3c07f37c78
commit 117082af8c
2 changed files with 46 additions and 1 deletions
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CONTEXT.md
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@@ -20,6 +20,18 @@ _Avoid_: Future life, actual lifespan, failure date
The degree to which the observation history is sufficiently long, complete, and stable to support the usage-adjusted theoretical lifespan.
_Avoid_: Accuracy percentage, certainty
**Projection stage**:
Where a usage-adjusted theoretical lifespan stands on its way to support: no observations yet, provisional, warming, limited, supported, or unavailable. Each stage is shown with the facts that place it there.
_Avoid_: Loading state, progress percentage
**Provisional projection**:
A lifespan shown from only a few hours of observation history, before a full daily cycle has been seen; it is labelled with the hours observed and its spread, and is expected to move.
_Avoid_: Estimate, preview, guess
**Evidence ladder**:
The conditions that supported projection confidence requires, each shown as met or unmet with its reason, so confidence visibly strengthens as each collection run adds evidence.
_Avoid_: Confidence score, accuracy meter
**Monitoring period**:
A span during which Fenris monitoring is enabled; powered-off time remains part of the usage habit, while deliberately disabled time does not.
_Avoid_: Daemon uptime, calibration window
@@ -56,6 +68,10 @@ _Avoid_: Missing bytes, estimated midnight split
The read/write measurement, date and point being inspected in live or historical drive activity. Live activity follows the newest point until deliberate inspection pins a point; historical selection survives refresh, while an expired live pin is explained before following resumes.
_Avoid_: Projection window, current usage habit
**Activity readout**:
The ready-to-read account of an activity selection: measured read and write volume, thermal evidence, usage-habit split, coverage and drive warnings for the selected live interval, local hour or local day, expressed in local time with its timezone.
_Avoid_: Graph data, view model
**Usage-history window**:
An exact consecutive span of UTC calendar days ending today, shown from day aggregates; a day without trustworthy evidence remains an explicit gap rather than disappearing or being estimated.
_Avoid_: Available records, dataset range
@@ -93,7 +109,7 @@ A sustained divergence between recent and earlier daily write rates that starts
_Avoid_: Spike, anomaly
**Scenario range**:
The spread of lifespan projections computed from the 7-, 28-, and 90-day horizons of the observation history, shown in place of a statistical interval.
The spread of lifespan projections computed from the horizons the observation history covers — 24-hour and 3-day horizons until a 7-day horizon exists, then 7-, 28-, and 90-day horizons — shown in place of a statistical interval.
_Avoid_: Confidence interval, error bar
**Coverage**: